This week we can reflect on the good news of the first vaccines arriving, being distributed and administered to people in the UK. The Government plans state the aim of the COVID-19 vaccination programme is to protect those who are at most risk from serious illness or death from COVID-19.
The Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI) have set out a prioritization for persons at risk. JCVI ranked the eligible groups according to risk, largely based on prevention of COVID-19-specific mortality.
Priority groups 4 and 6 also include clinical risk groups. The list can be seen here:
The Government has published guidance entitled “Why you have to wait for your COVID-19 vaccine” which details age groups and eligible groups in detail. It also outlines the fact that the COVID-19 vaccines will become available as they are approved for use and as each batch is manufactured. So every dose is needed to protect those at highest risk. People will be called in as soon as there is enough vaccine available.
The guidance states:
“Some people who are housebound or live in a care home and who can’t get to a local vaccination center may have to wait for supply of the right type of vaccine. This is because only some vaccines can be transported between people’s homes.
Vaccines will be offered in a range of settings. Some vaccination teams will visit people to offer the vaccine, for example in care homes, other people may have to go to the nearest centre. Because some of the vaccine has to be stored in a very low temperature freezer, you may not be able to get the vaccine in your normal GP surgery.”
In a year of doubt, uncertainty and unprecedented fear for us all, it is certainly good news that there is a plan for the vaccination of those most vulnerable to the virus. Let’s hope the development of new vaccines and their distribution continues and that sometime in 2021 we can return to normal!
WHAT HOPE FOR THE RECOVERY?
The latest economic indicators for the UK economy from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show 77% of UK businesses are currently trading, with 14% of trading business’ workforce on furlough leave. Their latest figures show that monthly gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4% during October 2020 but was still 7.9% below February 2020 levels.
Output is expected to shrink again in November after England’s second shutdown forced many businesses to close.
October 2020 saw the sixth consecutive month of growth, but the rate of recovery has slowed each month since the largest rise of 9.1% in June 2020. Across services, the monthly growth was driven by health, wholesale, retail and motor trades, and education, while accommodation and food and beverage service activities declined. Within manufacturing there was widespread growth, led by a rise of 6.8% in motor vehicle production. Monthly construction output growth slowed to 1.0% in October 2020, the sixth consecutive month of growth but the lowest rise in that time, with the level of construction output in October 2020 still 6.4% below the February 2020 level.
The figures are gradually improving although it is going to be a long haul. It is clear the hospitality, travel, arts and retail sectors are hardest hit and whilst there are regional grants to support them we believe these sectors will take the longer to recover.
A “No Deal” Brexit will have a negative impact on the economy in early 2021 and any recovery will take longer as a result. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) predict the UK won’t get back to its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2022 and if there is “No Deal” this could take up to 2024.
Despite the pandemic and the possibility of “No Deal”, we still continue to be impressed with the resilience of our clients and how they have energetically repurposed or pivoted their businesses into new areas, products and services.
Please do talk to us about planning for 2021 and beyond, we have considerable experience in helping businesses project their figures forward and perform “What if” analysis to look at a range of scenarios.